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Notre Dame vs Syracuse prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Syracuse
ND 85% win15% SYR
34Projected22If SYR upsets
vs
19Projected31If SYR upsetsAway
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Record 6–1 · #1 in ratings
Home
Syracuse Orange
Record 3–4 · #75 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (52)
Starts at 52, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ND | SYR | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 29 | 93 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert15%Syracuse wins at home
At a neutral site11% ▼
Syracuse: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (North Carolina 31–30, UConn 42–41)
Notre Dame: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (BYU 24–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Syracuse won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- ND 27, SYR 1069 games
- ND 27, SYR 1769 games
- ND 34, SYR 1767 games
- ND 34, SYR 1063 games
- ND 41, SYR 1755 games
- Power index
- 100 vs 46
- Projected
- ND favored
- Differential
- 15.3 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Syracuse, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Syracuse.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Notre Dame by 15.3
- Projected total
- 52.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 25.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.0%
- Notre Dame wins by 21+
- 36.0%
- Syracuse wins by 21+
- 0.9%
- Median score
- 34–17
- Model expectation
- 33.8–18.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Notre Dame wins, bars on the left are Syracuse wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Notre Dame offense vs Syracuse defenseOffense +8.4Defense -1.1Edge Notre Dame: its offense is 9.5 points better than Syracuse's defense.
Syracuse offense vs Notre Dame defenseOffense +0.6Defense +9.4Edge Notre Dame: its defense is 8.8 points better than Syracuse's offense.
| Stat | Notre Dame | Syracuse | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.36 | 0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.08 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.9% | 42.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.5% | 42.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 41.1 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4 | 26.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
