Loading the matchup…
Ohio State vs USC prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:30 PM CT, at USC
OSU 69% win31% USC
32Projected
vs
25ProjectedAway
Ohio State Buckeyes
Record 6–1 · #5 in ratings
Home
USC Trojans
Record 6–2 · #33 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 97 vs 77
- Projected
- OSU favored
- Differential
- 7.1 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at USC, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:30 PM CT, at USC.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ohio State by 7.1
- Projected total
- 56.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.8%
- Ohio State wins by 21+
- 17.5%
- USC wins by 21+
- 3.0%
- Median score
- 31–24
- Model expectation
- 31.8–24.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Ohio State wins, bars on the left are USC wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ohio State 27, USC 2058 games
- Ohio State 27, USC 2458 games
- Ohio State 34, USC 2058 games
- Ohio State 34, USC 2755 games
- Ohio State 34, USC 2455 games
- Ohio State 30, USC 2055 games
Where the edges are
Ohio State offense vs USC defenseOffense +7.3Defense -0.2Edge Ohio State: its offense is 7.5 points better than USC's defense.
USC offense vs Ohio State defenseOffense +6.1Defense +8.7Edge Ohio State: its defense is 2.6 points better than USC's offense.
| Stat | Ohio State | USC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.27 | 0.25 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.05 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 50.5% | 51.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 39.3 | 32.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.