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Oklahoma State vs Oregon prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
OKST 55% win45% ORE
28Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Record 5–2 · #22 in ratings
Neutral site
Oregon Ducks
Record 4–3 · #32 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 85 vs 77
- Projected
- OKST favored
- Differential
- 2.2 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oklahoma State by 2.2
- Projected total
- 53.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.7%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- Oklahoma State wins by 21+
- 11.9%
- Oregon wins by 21+
- 7.1%
- Median score
- 27–24
- Model expectation
- 27.4–25.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oklahoma State wins, bars on the left are Oregon wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Oregon 27, Oklahoma State 2061 games
- Oregon 24, Oklahoma State 2057 games
- Oklahoma State 24, Oregon 1751 games
- Oklahoma State 27, Oregon 2049 games
- Oklahoma State 30, Oregon 2749 games
- Oklahoma State 27, Oregon 2347 games
Where the edges are
Oklahoma State offense vs Oregon defenseOffense +7.5Defense +5.8Edge Oklahoma State: its offense is 1.7 points better than Oregon's defense.
Oregon offense vs Oklahoma State defenseOffense +0.4Defense +1.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Oregon | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.20 | 0.09 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.00 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.5% | 41.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.4% | 36.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 40.0 | 33.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7 | 20.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.