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Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Oklahoma State
OKST 57% win43% TTU
32Projected25If TTU upsets
vs
30Projected37If TTU upsetsHome
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Record 5–2 · #22 in ratings
Away
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Record 6–1 · #20 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (58)
Starts at 58, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | OKST | TTU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 52 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up43%Texas Tech wins on the road
If Texas Tech plays at home58% ▲
Texas Tech: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Houston 28–26)
Oklahoma State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Tulsa 10–24)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Texas Tech won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- OKST 31, TTU 2752 games
- OKST 27, TTU 2044 games
- TTU 30, OKST 2741 games
- TTU 34, OKST 3039 games
- OKST 34, TTU 2738 games
- Power index
- 85 vs 86
- Projected
- OKST favored
- Differential
- 2.9 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Oklahoma State, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Oklahoma State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oklahoma State by 2.9
- Projected total
- 61.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Oklahoma State wins by 21+
- 14.3%
- Texas Tech wins by 21+
- 7.4%
- Median score
- 32–30
- Model expectation
- 31.9–29.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oklahoma State wins, bars on the left are Texas Tech wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Oklahoma State offense vs Texas Tech defenseOffense +7.5Defense +2.8Edge Oklahoma State: its offense is 4.7 points better than Texas Tech's defense.
Texas Tech offense vs Oklahoma State defenseOffense +5.9Defense +1.0Edge Texas Tech: its offense is 4.9 points better than Oklahoma State's defense.
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Texas Tech | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.20 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | -0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.5% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 37.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 40.0 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.