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Oklahoma State vs Tulsa prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
OKST 71% win29% TLSA
33Projected
vs
25ProjectedNeutral site
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Record 5–2 · #22 in ratings
Neutral site
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Record 4–4 · #72 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 85 vs 48
- Projected
- OKST favored
- Differential
- 8.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oklahoma State by 8.4
- Projected total
- 58.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 35.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Oklahoma State wins by 21+
- 21.6%
- Tulsa wins by 21+
- 3.3%
- Median score
- 33–24
- Model expectation
- 33.1–24.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oklahoma State wins, bars on the left are Tulsa wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Oklahoma State 34, Tulsa 2053 games
- Oklahoma State 34, Tulsa 2749 games
- Oklahoma State 34, Tulsa 2445 games
- Oklahoma State 27, Tulsa 2445 games
- Oklahoma State 37, Tulsa 2445 games
- Oklahoma State 41, Tulsa 2441 games
Where the edges are
Oklahoma State offense vs Tulsa defenseOffense +7.5Defense +0.1Edge Oklahoma State: its offense is 7.4 points better than Tulsa's defense.
Tulsa offense vs Oklahoma State defenseOffense +0.0Defense +1.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Oklahoma State | Tulsa | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.20 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.5% | 39.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.4% | 40.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 40.0 | 29.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7 | 24.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.