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Oklahoma State vs West Virginia prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
OKST 69% win31% WVU
40Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Record 5–2 · #22 in ratings
Neutral site
West Virginia Mountaineers
Record 5–3 · #67 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 85 vs 52
- Projected
- OKST favored
- Differential
- 8.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oklahoma State by 8.0
- Projected total
- 72.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 35.2%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- Oklahoma State wins by 21+
- 22.6%
- West Virginia wins by 21+
- 4.2%
- Median score
- 40–31
- Model expectation
- 40–32
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oklahoma State wins, bars on the left are West Virginia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Oklahoma State 37, West Virginia 2750 games
- Oklahoma State 40, West Virginia 3437 games
- Oklahoma State 37, West Virginia 3036 games
- Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 3033 games
- Oklahoma State 41, West Virginia 3733 games
- Oklahoma State 44, West Virginia 3433 games
Where the edges are
Oklahoma State offense vs West Virginia defenseOffense +7.5Defense -6.7Edge Oklahoma State: its offense is 14.2 points better than West Virginia's defense.
West Virginia offense vs Oklahoma State defenseOffense +7.2Defense +1.0Edge West Virginia: its offense is 6.2 points better than Oklahoma State's defense.
| Stat | Oklahoma State | West Virginia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.20 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.26 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.5% | 42.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.4% | 47.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 40.0 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.7 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.