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Oklahoma vs South Carolina prediction
Kickoff Sat 3:15 PM CT, at Oklahoma
OU 56% win44% SC
24Projected
vs
22ProjectedHome
Oklahoma Sooners
Record 4–3 · #39 in ratings
Away
South Carolina Gamecocks
Record 4–3 · #34 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 72 vs 76
- Projected
- OU favored
- Differential
- 1.8 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Oklahoma, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 3:15 PM CT, at Oklahoma.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oklahoma by 1.8
- Projected total
- 46.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.5%
- Oklahoma wins by 21+
- 10.1%
- South Carolina wins by 21+
- 6.5%
- Median score
- 24–21
- Model expectation
- 23.7–21.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oklahoma wins, bars on the left are South Carolina wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Oklahoma 20, South Carolina 1780 games
- South Carolina 24, Oklahoma 2073 games
- Oklahoma 24, South Carolina 2069 games
- South Carolina 20, Oklahoma 1763 games
- Oklahoma 17, South Carolina 1063 games
- Oklahoma 24, South Carolina 1762 games
Where the edges are
Oklahoma offense vs South Carolina defenseOffense -2.9Defense +0.7Edge South Carolina: its defense is 3.6 points better than Oklahoma's offense.
South Carolina offense vs Oklahoma defenseOffense +5.1Defense +7.7Edge Oklahoma: its defense is 2.6 points better than South Carolina's offense.
| Stat | Oklahoma | South Carolina | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.12 | 0.13 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.9% | 44.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.5% | 42.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.6 | 36.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 17.7 | 25.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.