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Oklahoma vs Texas prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
OU 29% win71% TEX
15Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
Oklahoma Sooners
Record 4–3 · #39 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas Longhorns
Record 5–2 · #9 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 72 vs 94
- Projected
- TEX favored
- Differential
- 7.0 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas by 7.0
- Projected total
- 37.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.1%
- Went to overtime
- 4.8%
- Oklahoma wins by 21+
- 2.8%
- Texas wins by 21+
- 15.8%
- Median score
- 14–21
- Model expectation
- 14.9–21.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oklahoma wins, bars on the left are Texas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Texas 17, Oklahoma 10122 games
- Texas 24, Oklahoma 1094 games
- Texas 17, Oklahoma 787 games
- Texas 20, Oklahoma 1086 games
- Texas 20, Oklahoma 1785 games
- Texas 17, Oklahoma 1481 games
Where the edges are
Oklahoma offense vs Texas defenseOffense -2.9Defense +8.0Edge Texas: its defense is 10.9 points better than Oklahoma's offense.
Texas offense vs Oklahoma defenseOffense +3.7Defense +7.7Edge Oklahoma: its defense is 4.0 points better than Texas's offense.
| Stat | Oklahoma | Texas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.02 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.12 | -0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.9% | 42.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 33.5% | 34.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.6 | 30.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 17.7 | 19.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.