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Old Dominion vs Southern Miss prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Old Dominion
ODU 56% win44% USM
26Projected19If USM upsets
vs
24Projected31If USM upsetsHome
Old Dominion Monarchs
Record 2–6 · #129 in ratings
Away
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Record 2–5 · #127 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (58)
Starts at 58, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ODU | USM | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 64 | 58 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up44%Southern Miss wins on the road
If Southern Miss plays at home58% ▲
Southern Miss: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Louisiana 35–31)
Old Dominion: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Southern Miss won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- ODU 20, USM 1775 games
- ODU 24, USM 2069 games
- ODU 27, USM 1765 games
- USM 24, ODU 2058 games
- ODU 23, USM 2057 games
- Power index
- 7 vs 8
- Projected
- ODU favored
- Differential
- 2.5 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Old Dominion, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Old Dominion.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Old Dominion by 2.5
- Projected total
- 49.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Old Dominion wins by 21+
- 12.0%
- Southern Miss wins by 21+
- 6.7%
- Median score
- 26–23
- Model expectation
- 25.7–23
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Old Dominion wins, bars on the left are Southern Miss wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Old Dominion offense vs Southern Miss defenseOffense -9.5Defense -8.0Edge Southern Miss: its defense is 1.6 points better than Old Dominion's offense.
Southern Miss offense vs Old Dominion defenseOffense -2.9Defense -1.6Edge Old Dominion: its defense is 1.3 points better than Southern Miss's offense.
| Stat | Old Dominion | Southern Miss | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.15 | 0.02 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 30.6% | 41.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 42.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 15.5 | 25.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 32.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
