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Old Dominion vs UConn prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at UConn
ODU 15% win85% CONN
17Projected27If ODU upsets
vs
32Projected19If ODU upsetsAway
Old Dominion Monarchs
Record 2–6 · #129 in ratings
Home
UConn Huskies
Record 4–3 · #61 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (57)
Starts at 57, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | ODU | CONN | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.5 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 64 | 82 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert15%Old Dominion wins on the road
If Old Dominion plays at home27% ▲
Old Dominion: 1 win over a higher-rated team (App State 10–3)
UConn: 3 losses to lower-rated teams (Syracuse 41–42, Miami (OH) 21–24 +1 more)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Old Dominion won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- CONN 27, ODU 1081 games
- CONN 27, ODU 1778 games
- CONN 30, ODU 762 games
- CONN 34, ODU 1060 games
- CONN 37, ODU 1056 games
- Power index
- 7 vs 56
- Projected
- CONN favored
- Differential
- 15.1 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at UConn, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at UConn.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UConn by 15.1
- Projected total
- 48.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 27.0%
- Went to overtime
- 2.3%
- Old Dominion wins by 21+
- 0.8%
- UConn wins by 21+
- 36.1%
- Median score
- 16–31
- Model expectation
- 16.3–31.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Old Dominion wins, bars on the left are UConn wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Old Dominion offense vs UConn defenseOffense -9.5Defense -1.6Edge UConn: its defense is 7.9 points better than Old Dominion's offense.
UConn offense vs Old Dominion defenseOffense +2.4Defense -1.6Edge UConn: its offense is 4.1 points better than Old Dominion's defense.
| Stat | Old Dominion | UConn | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.15 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 30.6% | 43.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 41.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 15.5 | 35.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 23.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.