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Old Dominion vs Virginia Tech prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ODU 15% win85% VT
16Projected
vs
30ProjectedNeutral site
Old Dominion Monarchs
Record 2–6 · #129 in ratings
Neutral site
Virginia Tech Hokies
Record 6–2 · #53 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 7 vs 62
- Projected
- VT favored
- Differential
- 14.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Virginia Tech by 14.1
- Projected total
- 45.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 28.8%
- Went to overtime
- 2.6%
- Old Dominion wins by 21+
- 0.9%
- Virginia Tech wins by 21+
- 32.1%
- Median score
- 14–30
- Model expectation
- 15.4–29.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Old Dominion wins, bars on the left are Virginia Tech wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Virginia Tech 20, Old Dominion 1777 games
- Virginia Tech 31, Old Dominion 1076 games
- Virginia Tech 24, Old Dominion 1074 games
- Virginia Tech 34, Old Dominion 1471 games
- Virginia Tech 27, Old Dominion 1069 games
- Virginia Tech 20, Old Dominion 1067 games
Where the edges are
Old Dominion offense vs Virginia Tech defenseOffense -9.5Defense +0.8Edge Virginia Tech: its defense is 10.4 points better than Old Dominion's offense.
Virginia Tech offense vs Old Dominion defenseOffense +2.0Defense -1.6Edge Virginia Tech: its offense is 3.6 points better than Old Dominion's defense.
| Stat | Old Dominion | Virginia Tech | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.15 | 0.19 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.03 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 30.6% | 44.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 38.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 15.5 | 35.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.8 | 20.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.