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Ole Miss vs Texas prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MISS 50% win50% TEX
26.9Projected
vs
27.0ProjectedNeutral site
Ole Miss Rebels
Record 5–2 · #10 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas Longhorns
Record 5–2 · #9 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 93 vs 94
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 54.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Ole Miss wins by 21+
- 8.9%
- Texas wins by 21+
- 9.2%
- Median score
- 27–27
- Model expectation
- 26.4–26.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Ole Miss wins, bars on the left are Texas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ole Miss 27, Texas 2055 games
- Ole Miss 34, Texas 2751 games
- Ole Miss 31, Texas 2751 games
- Ole Miss 24, Texas 2048 games
- Texas 34, Ole Miss 3048 games
- Ole Miss 30, Texas 2747 games
Where the edges are
Ole Miss offense vs Texas defenseOffense +8.6Defense +8.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
Texas offense vs Ole Miss defenseOffense +3.7Defense +2.7Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Ole Miss | Texas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.26 | 0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | -0.01 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.2% | 42.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 34.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.0 | 30.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 19.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.