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Ole Miss vs Vanderbilt prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
MISS 89% win11% VAN
38Projected
vs
20ProjectedNeutral site
Ole Miss Rebels
Record 5–2 · #10 in ratings
Neutral site
Vanderbilt Commodores
Record 3–5 · #109 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 93 vs 21
- Projected
- MISS favored
- Differential
- 18.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Ole Miss by 18.1
- Projected total
- 57.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 21.5%
- Went to overtime
- 1.4%
- Ole Miss wins by 21+
- 43.7%
- Vanderbilt wins by 21+
- 0.5%
- Median score
- 37–20
- Model expectation
- 37.8–19.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Ole Miss wins, bars on the left are Vanderbilt wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Ole Miss 37, Vanderbilt 1761 games
- Ole Miss 37, Vanderbilt 1449 games
- Ole Miss 37, Vanderbilt 1047 games
- Ole Miss 30, Vanderbilt 1047 games
- Ole Miss 41, Vanderbilt 2046 games
- Ole Miss 27, Vanderbilt 1745 games
Where the edges are
Ole Miss offense vs Vanderbilt defenseOffense +8.6Defense -3.3Edge Ole Miss: its offense is 12.0 points better than Vanderbilt's defense.
Vanderbilt offense vs Ole Miss defenseOffense -3.5Defense +2.7Edge Ole Miss: its defense is 6.3 points better than Vanderbilt's offense.
| Stat | Ole Miss | Vanderbilt | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.26 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 48.2% | 40.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 45.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.0 | 22.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 30.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.