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Oregon State vs Texas Tech prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ORST 48% win52% TTU
31Projected
vs
32ProjectedNeutral site
Oregon State Beavers
Record 5–2 · #24 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Record 6–1 · #20 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 83 vs 86
- Projected
- TTU favored
- Differential
- 0.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas Tech by 0.7
- Projected total
- 62.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Oregon State wins by 21+
- 8.8%
- Texas Tech wins by 21+
- 10.4%
- Median score
- 30–31
- Model expectation
- 30.5–31.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oregon State wins, bars on the left are Texas Tech wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Oregon State 34, Texas Tech 3062 games
- Texas Tech 31, Oregon State 2749 games
- Texas Tech 30, Oregon State 2749 games
- Texas Tech 34, Oregon State 2744 games
- Oregon State 30, Texas Tech 2742 games
- Texas Tech 34, Oregon State 3040 games
Where the edges are
Oregon State offense vs Texas Tech defenseOffense +7.5Defense +2.8Edge Oregon State: its offense is 4.7 points better than Texas Tech's defense.
Texas Tech offense vs Oregon State defenseOffense +5.9Defense +0.6Edge Texas Tech: its offense is 5.3 points better than Oregon State's defense.
| Stat | Oregon State | Texas Tech | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | -0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.8% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 37.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 42.7 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.