Loading the matchup…
Oregon State vs UTEP prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ORST 95% win5% UTEP
41Projected
vs
17ProjectedNeutral site
Oregon State Beavers
Record 5–2 · #24 in ratings
Neutral site
UTEP Miners
Record 1–6 · #134 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 83 vs 3
- Projected
- ORST favored
- Differential
- 23.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oregon State by 23.8
- Projected total
- 57.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 12.3%
- Went to overtime
- 0.6%
- Oregon State wins by 21+
- 59.5%
- UTEP wins by 21+
- 0.1%
- Median score
- 40–16
- Model expectation
- 40.5–16.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oregon State wins, bars on the left are UTEP wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Oregon State 40, UTEP 1772 games
- Oregon State 44, UTEP 1770 games
- Oregon State 37, UTEP 1764 games
- Oregon State 37, UTEP 1063 games
- Oregon State 44, UTEP 1056 games
- Oregon State 37, UTEP 2453 games
Where the edges are
Oregon State offense vs UTEP defenseOffense +7.5Defense -7.3Edge Oregon State: its offense is 14.7 points better than UTEP's defense.
UTEP offense vs Oregon State defenseOffense -8.4Defense +0.6Edge Oregon State: its defense is 9.0 points better than UTEP's offense.
| Stat | Oregon State | UTEP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | -0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.28 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.8% | 33.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 48.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 42.7 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.