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Oregon State vs Washington State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ORST 86% win14% WSU
36Projected
vs
19ProjectedNeutral site
Oregon State Beavers
Record 5–2 · #24 in ratings
Neutral site
Washington State Cougars
Record 1–7 · #118 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 83 vs 15
- Projected
- ORST favored
- Differential
- 16.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oregon State by 16.3
- Projected total
- 54.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 24.2%
- Went to overtime
- 1.9%
- Oregon State wins by 21+
- 39.1%
- Washington State wins by 21+
- 0.9%
- Median score
- 35–17
- Model expectation
- 35.5–19
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oregon State wins, bars on the left are Washington State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Oregon State 27, Washington State 1759 games
- Oregon State 34, Washington State 1757 games
- Oregon State 34, Washington State 1055 games
- Oregon State 30, Washington State 1054 games
- Oregon State 30, Washington State 1752 games
- Oregon State 37, Washington State 1751 games
Where the edges are
Oregon State offense vs Washington State defenseOffense +7.5Defense -2.2Edge Oregon State: its offense is 9.7 points better than Washington State's defense.
Washington State offense vs Oregon State defenseOffense -6.2Defense +0.6Edge Oregon State: its defense is 6.8 points better than Washington State's offense.
| Stat | Oregon State | Washington State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.32 | -0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.14 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.8% | 34.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 41.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 42.7 | 18.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.