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Oregon vs UCLA prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ORE 32% win68% UCLA
18Projected
vs
25ProjectedNeutral site
Oregon Ducks
Record 4–3 · #32 in ratings
Neutral site
UCLA Bruins
Record 7–0 · #8 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 77 vs 95
- Projected
- UCLA favored
- Differential
- 6.6 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UCLA by 6.6
- Projected total
- 43.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.2%
- Went to overtime
- 4.4%
- Oregon wins by 21+
- 3.4%
- UCLA wins by 21+
- 16.4%
- Median score
- 17–24
- Model expectation
- 18.2–24.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oregon wins, bars on the left are UCLA wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UCLA 24, Oregon 1790 games
- UCLA 24, Oregon 1083 games
- UCLA 20, Oregon 1071 games
- UCLA 24, Oregon 2070 games
- UCLA 17, Oregon 1368 games
- UCLA 20, Oregon 1764 games
Where the edges are
Oregon offense vs UCLA defenseOffense +0.4Defense +8.0Edge UCLA: its defense is 7.6 points better than Oregon's offense.
UCLA offense vs Oregon defenseOffense +4.5Defense +5.8Edge Oregon: its defense is 1.4 points better than UCLA's offense.
| Stat | Oregon | UCLA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.09 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.00 | -0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.2% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.7% | 33.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 33.1 | 34.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.7 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.