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Oregon vs USC prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
ORE 51% win49% USC
27Projected
vs
26ProjectedNeutral site
Oregon Ducks
Record 4–3 · #32 in ratings
Neutral site
USC Trojans
Record 6–2 · #33 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 77 vs 77
- Projected
- ORE favored
- Differential
- 0.5 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Oregon by 0.5
- Projected total
- 53.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Oregon wins by 21+
- 9.6%
- USC wins by 21+
- 8.0%
- Median score
- 27–26
- Model expectation
- 26.4–26
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Oregon wins, bars on the left are USC wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- USC 24, Oregon 2062 games
- USC 20, Oregon 1758 games
- Oregon 27, USC 2355 games
- USC 27, Oregon 2055 games
- Oregon 27, USC 2054 games
- Oregon 24, USC 2053 games
Where the edges are
Oregon offense vs USC defenseOffense +0.4Defense -0.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
USC offense vs Oregon defenseOffense +6.1Defense +5.8Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Oregon | USC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.09 | 0.25 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.00 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.2% | 51.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 36.7% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 33.1 | 32.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.7 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.