Loading the matchup…
Penn State vs Purdue prediction
Kickoff Sat 3:15 PM CT, at Penn State
PSU 71% win29% PUR
33Projected
vs
25ProjectedHome
Penn State Nittany Lions
Record 3–4 · #36 in ratings
Away
Purdue Boilermakers
Record 3–4 · #68 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 74 vs 51
- Projected
- PSU favored
- Differential
- 8.4 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Penn State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 3:15 PM CT, at Penn State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Penn State by 8.4
- Projected total
- 58.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Penn State wins by 21+
- 21.3%
- Purdue wins by 21+
- 3.1%
- Median score
- 33–24
- Model expectation
- 32.9–24.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Penn State wins, bars on the left are Purdue wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Penn State 30, Purdue 2054 games
- Penn State 34, Purdue 2049 games
- Penn State 27, Purdue 1748 games
- Penn State 27, Purdue 2345 games
- Penn State 34, Purdue 2444 games
- Penn State 31, Purdue 2744 games
Where the edges are
Penn State offense vs Purdue defenseOffense +0.8Defense -4.8Edge Penn State: its offense is 5.6 points better than Purdue's defense.
Purdue offense vs Penn State defenseOffense +5.2Defense +4.8Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Penn State | Purdue | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.12 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.27 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.4% | 45.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2% | 47.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.7 | 31.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 18.9 | 32.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.