Loading the matchup…
Pittsburgh vs Syracuse prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
PITT 64% win36% SYR
28Projected
vs
23ProjectedNeutral site
Pittsburgh Panthers
Record 5–3 · #45 in ratings
Neutral site
Syracuse Orange
Record 3–4 · #75 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 68 vs 46
- Projected
- PITT favored
- Differential
- 4.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pittsburgh by 4.9
- Projected total
- 50.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Pittsburgh wins by 21+
- 14.0%
- Syracuse wins by 21+
- 4.5%
- Median score
- 27–23
- Model expectation
- 27.5–22.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Pittsburgh wins, bars on the left are Syracuse wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 2064 games
- Pittsburgh 27, Syracuse 2063 games
- Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 1763 games
- Pittsburgh 20, Syracuse 1759 games
- Syracuse 24, Pittsburgh 2055 games
- Pittsburgh 27, Syracuse 2354 games
Where the edges are
Pittsburgh offense vs Syracuse defenseOffense +0.7Defense -1.1Edge Pittsburgh: its offense is 1.8 points better than Syracuse's defense.
Syracuse offense vs Pittsburgh defenseOffense +0.6Defense +3.4Edge Pittsburgh: its defense is 2.8 points better than Syracuse's offense.
| Stat | Pittsburgh | Syracuse | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.16 | 0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.04 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 43.6% | 42.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 35.7% | 42.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.6 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9 | 26.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.