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Purdue vs Wisconsin prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Purdue
PUR 37% win63% WIS
25Projected33If PUR upsets
vs
30Projected23If PUR upsetsHome
Purdue Boilermakers
Record 3–4 · #68 in ratings
Away
Wisconsin Badgers
Record 5–2 · #23 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (46)
Starts at 46, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | PUR | WIS | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 54 | 56 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog37%Purdue wins at home
At a neutral site30% ▼
Purdue: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Illinois 24–17)
Wisconsin: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Purdue won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- WIS 27, PUR 2061 games
- WIS 34, PUR 2055 games
- WIS 27, PUR 2355 games
- WIS 30, PUR 2055 games
- PUR 34, WIS 3050 games
- Power index
- 51 vs 84
- Projected
- WIS favored
- Differential
- 4.8 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Purdue, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Purdue.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Wisconsin by 4.8
- Projected total
- 55.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Purdue wins by 21+
- 4.3%
- Wisconsin wins by 21+
- 14.4%
- Median score
- 24–30
- Model expectation
- 25–29.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Purdue wins, bars on the left are Wisconsin wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Purdue offense vs Wisconsin defenseOffense +5.2Defense +7.5Edge Wisconsin: its defense is 2.3 points better than Purdue's offense.
Wisconsin offense vs Purdue defenseOffense +0.8Defense -4.8Edge Wisconsin: its offense is 5.6 points better than Purdue's defense.
| Stat | Purdue | Wisconsin | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.22 | 0.11 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.27 | -0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 45.2% | 39.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 47.2% | 37.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.3 | 27.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.3 | 15.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.