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Rice vs Temple prediction
Kickoff Thu 6:30 PM CT, at Temple
RICE 36% win64% TEM
24Projected31If RICE upsets
vs
29Projected21If RICE upsetsAway
Rice Owls
Record 1–7 · #115 in ratings
Home
Temple Owls
Record 2–5 · #102 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Low (37)
Starts at 37, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | RICE | TEM | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 46 | 37 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog36%Rice wins on the road
If Rice plays at home53% ▲
Rice: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Temple: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Charlotte 31–38)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Rice won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TEM 27, RICE 2067 games
- TEM 27, RICE 1759 games
- TEM 30, RICE 1758 games
- TEM 34, RICE 2457 games
- RICE 24, TEM 2056 games
- Power index
- 17 vs 26
- Projected
- TEM favored
- Differential
- 5.1 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Temple, luck set to low. The real game is Thu 6:30 PM CT, at Temple.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Temple by 5.1
- Projected total
- 52.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Rice wins by 21+
- 4.0%
- Temple wins by 21+
- 14.2%
- Median score
- 23–28
- Model expectation
- 23.2–28.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Rice wins, bars on the left are Temple wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Rice offense vs Temple defenseOffense -4.8Defense -3.7Edge Temple: its defense is 1.0 points better than Rice's offense.
Temple offense vs Rice defenseOffense -2.3Defense -3.3Edge Temple: its offense is 1.1 points better than Rice's defense.
| Stat | Rice | Temple | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.21 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.6% | 43.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7% | 46.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 25.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.8 | 28.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.