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Rice vs Tulsa prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
RICE 29% win71% TLSA
21Projected
vs
30ProjectedNeutral site
Rice Owls
Record 1–7 · #115 in ratings
Neutral site
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Record 4–4 · #72 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 17 vs 48
- Projected
- TLSA favored
- Differential
- 8.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Tulsa by 8.3
- Projected total
- 50.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.7%
- Rice wins by 21+
- 2.6%
- Tulsa wins by 21+
- 20.2%
- Median score
- 20–30
- Model expectation
- 20.9–29.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Rice wins, bars on the left are Tulsa wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Tulsa 27, Rice 1779 games
- Tulsa 27, Rice 2058 games
- Tulsa 24, Rice 2055 games
- Tulsa 27, Rice 2454 games
- Tulsa 27, Rice 1053 games
- Tulsa 20, Rice 1753 games
Where the edges are
Rice offense vs Tulsa defenseOffense -4.8Defense +0.1Edge Tulsa: its defense is 4.9 points better than Rice's offense.
Tulsa offense vs Rice defenseOffense +0.0Defense -3.3Edge Tulsa: its offense is 3.4 points better than Rice's defense.
| Stat | Rice | Tulsa | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.6% | 39.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7% | 40.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 29.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.8 | 24.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.