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Rice vs UTSA prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
RICE 24% win76% UTSA
23Projected
vs
34ProjectedNeutral site
Rice Owls
Record 1–7 · #115 in ratings
Neutral site
UTSA Roadrunners
Record 7–1 · #55 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 17 vs 61
- Projected
- UTSA favored
- Differential
- 10.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UTSA by 10.7
- Projected total
- 56.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.1%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- Rice wins by 21+
- 2.1%
- UTSA wins by 21+
- 26.0%
- Median score
- 22–33
- Model expectation
- 22.5–33.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Rice wins, bars on the left are UTSA wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UTSA 34, Rice 2059 games
- UTSA 30, Rice 2058 games
- UTSA 34, Rice 1749 games
- UTSA 27, Rice 2047 games
- UTSA 37, Rice 1747 games
- UTSA 30, Rice 1746 games
Where the edges are
Rice offense vs UTSA defenseOffense -4.8Defense -1.5Edge UTSA: its defense is 3.3 points better than Rice's offense.
UTSA offense vs Rice defenseOffense +4.2Defense -3.3Edge UTSA: its offense is 7.5 points better than Rice's defense.
| Stat | Rice | UTSA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.6% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7% | 40.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 33.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.8 | 26.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.