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Rice vs Western Michigan prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
RICE 27% win73% WMU
20Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Rice Owls
Record 1–7 · #115 in ratings
Neutral site
Western Michigan Broncos
Record 5–3 · #66 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 17 vs 53
- Projected
- WMU favored
- Differential
- 8.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Western Michigan by 8.9
- Projected total
- 48.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- Rice wins by 21+
- 2.5%
- Western Michigan wins by 21+
- 21.7%
- Median score
- 20–28
- Model expectation
- 19.7–28.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Rice wins, bars on the left are Western Michigan wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Western Michigan 20, Rice 1763 games
- Western Michigan 27, Rice 2062 games
- Western Michigan 24, Rice 1761 games
- Western Michigan 34, Rice 1760 games
- Western Michigan 27, Rice 2458 games
- Western Michigan 27, Rice 1756 games
Where the edges are
Rice offense vs Western Michigan defenseOffense -4.8Defense +1.2Edge Western Michigan: its defense is 6.0 points better than Rice's offense.
Western Michigan offense vs Rice defenseOffense -0.7Defense -3.3Edge Western Michigan: its offense is 2.6 points better than Rice's defense.
| Stat | Rice | Western Michigan | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.03 | 0.13 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.15 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 40.6% | 42.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7% | 43.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 26.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 31.8 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.