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Rutgers vs Michigan prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:30 AM CT, at Rutgers
RUTG 32% win68% MICH
23Projected31If RUTG upsets
vs
29Projected21If RUTG upsetsHome
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Record 2–5 · #107 in ratings
Away
Michigan Wolverines
Record 4–3 · #50 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (53)
Starts at 53, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | RUTG | MICH | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 30 | 59 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog32%Rutgers wins at home
At a neutral site26% ▼
Rutgers: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Maryland 37–30)
Michigan: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Minnesota 14–20)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Rutgers won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- MICH 27, RUTG 2061 games
- MICH 27, RUTG 2452 games
- MICH 24, RUTG 2051 games
- MICH 34, RUTG 1749 games
- MICH 27, RUTG 1748 games
- Power index
- 23 vs 64
- Projected
- MICH favored
- Differential
- 7.0 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Rutgers, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:30 AM CT, at Rutgers.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Michigan by 7.0
- Projected total
- 51.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- Rutgers wins by 21+
- 3.6%
- Michigan wins by 21+
- 18.8%
- Median score
- 21–29
- Model expectation
- 22.2–29
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Rutgers wins, bars on the left are Michigan wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Rutgers offense vs Michigan defenseOffense +0.4Defense +5.5Edge Michigan: its defense is 5.1 points better than Rutgers's offense.
Michigan offense vs Rutgers defenseOffense -2.2Defense -7.0Edge Michigan: its offense is 4.8 points better than Rutgers's defense.
| Stat | Rutgers | Michigan | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.11 | 0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.29 | -0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.7% | 40.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 49.3% | 34.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.7 | 20.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3 | 15.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
More matchups this week
Delaware51.5%
Western Kentucky48.5%Tue 6:00 PM CT, at Western Kentucky28–27
Missouri State56.3%
Sam Houston43.7%Tue 7:00 PM CT, at Missouri State27–25
Middle Tennessee64.0%
Kennesaw State36.0%Wed 6:00 PM CT, at Middle Tennessee24–19
Jacksonville State51.2%
New Mexico State48.8%Wed 7:00 PM CT, at New Mexico State28–27
North Texas77.5%
Florida Atlantic22.5%Thu 6:30 PM CT, at North Texas46–34
James Madison91.7%
Troy8.3%Thu 6:30 PM CT, at James Madison37–16