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Rutgers vs USC prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
RUTG 20% win80% USC
27Projected
vs
39ProjectedNeutral site
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Record 2–5 · #107 in ratings
Neutral site
USC Trojans
Record 6–2 · #33 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 23 vs 77
- Projected
- USC favored
- Differential
- 12.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- USC by 12.3
- Projected total
- 65.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.1%
- Went to overtime
- 2.3%
- Rutgers wins by 21+
- 1.6%
- USC wins by 21+
- 29.3%
- Median score
- 26–39
- Model expectation
- 26.4–38.8
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Rutgers wins, bars on the left are USC wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- USC 34, Rutgers 2755 games
- USC 37, Rutgers 2055 games
- USC 37, Rutgers 2449 games
- USC 41, Rutgers 2747 games
- USC 40, Rutgers 2745 games
- USC 37, Rutgers 2744 games
Where the edges are
Rutgers offense vs USC defenseOffense +0.4Defense -0.2Even: neither side has a real edge.
USC offense vs Rutgers defenseOffense +6.1Defense -7.0Edge USC: its offense is 13.0 points better than Rutgers's defense.
| Stat | Rutgers | USC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.10 | 0.25 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.29 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 44.7% | 51.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 49.3% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 28.7 | 32.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.