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Sacramento State vs Kent State prediction
Kickoff Fri 9:30 PM CT, at Sacramento State
SAC 34% win66% KENT
17Projected24If SAC upsets
vs
22Projected15If SAC upsetsHome
Sacramento State Hornets
Record 1–7 · #137 in ratings
Away
Kent State Golden Flashes
Record 3–5 · #128 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (54)
Starts at 54, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | SAC | KENT | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 76 | 67 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog34%Sacramento State wins at home
At a neutral site26% ▼
Sacramento State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
Kent State: no losses to lower-rated teams in 7 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Sacramento State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- KENT 17, SAC 10107 games
- KENT 20, SAC 17101 games
- KENT 20, SAC 1090 games
- KENT 24, SAC 1790 games
- SAC 17, KENT 1085 games
- Power index
- 1 vs 7
- Projected
- KENT favored
- Differential
- 5.7 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Sacramento State, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 9:30 PM CT, at Sacramento State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Kent State by 5.7
- Projected total
- 38.7
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.8%
- Went to overtime
- 4.9%
- Sacramento State wins by 21+
- 3.0%
- Kent State wins by 21+
- 14.3%
- Median score
- 16–21
- Model expectation
- 16.2–21.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Sacramento State wins, bars on the left are Kent State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Sacramento State offense vs Kent State defenseOffense -12.0Defense -1.0Edge Kent State: its defense is 11.0 points better than Sacramento State's offense.
Kent State offense vs Sacramento State defenseOffense -10.2Defense -7.8Edge Sacramento State: its defense is 2.4 points better than Kent State's offense.
| Stat | Sacramento State | Kent State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.11 | -0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.19 | 0.11 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.7% | 35.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5% | 45.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 15.3 | 14.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.9 | 30.5 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
