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Sam Houston vs Tulsa prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
SHSU 23% win77% TLSA
17Projected
vs
28ProjectedNeutral site
Sam Houston Bearkats
Record 1–6 · #126 in ratings
Neutral site
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Record 4–4 · #72 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 9 vs 48
- Projected
- TLSA favored
- Differential
- 10.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Tulsa by 10.7
- Projected total
- 45.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 34.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.2%
- Sam Houston wins by 21+
- 1.7%
- Tulsa wins by 21+
- 24.9%
- Median score
- 17–27
- Model expectation
- 17–27.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Sam Houston wins, bars on the left are Tulsa wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Tulsa 27, Sam Houston 1076 games
- Tulsa 20, Sam Houston 1076 games
- Tulsa 24, Sam Houston 1073 games
- Tulsa 20, Sam Houston 1771 games
- Tulsa 27, Sam Houston 1770 games
- Tulsa 27, Sam Houston 2462 games
Where the edges are
Sam Houston offense vs Tulsa defenseOffense -8.7Defense +0.1Edge Tulsa: its defense is 8.8 points better than Sam Houston's offense.
Tulsa offense vs Sam Houston defenseOffense +0.0Defense -1.9Edge Tulsa: its offense is 1.9 points better than Sam Houston's defense.
| Stat | Sam Houston | Tulsa | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.03 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.4% | 39.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 40.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 29.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 24.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.