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Sam Houston vs Western Kentucky prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
SHSU 44% win56% WKU
21Projected
vs
23ProjectedNeutral site
Sam Houston Bearkats
Record 1–6 · #126 in ratings
Neutral site
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Record 3–4 · #119 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 9 vs 14
- Projected
- WKU favored
- Differential
- 2.3 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Western Kentucky by 2.3
- Projected total
- 43.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.4%
- Went to overtime
- 4.6%
- Sam Houston wins by 21+
- 5.5%
- Western Kentucky wins by 21+
- 10.1%
- Median score
- 20–23
- Model expectation
- 20.3–22.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Sam Houston wins, bars on the left are Western Kentucky wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Western Kentucky 20, Sam Houston 1778 games
- Western Kentucky 24, Sam Houston 2077 games
- Sam Houston 20, Western Kentucky 1773 games
- Sam Houston 17, Western Kentucky 1372 games
- Sam Houston 24, Western Kentucky 2072 games
- Sam Houston 24, Western Kentucky 1768 games
Where the edges are
Sam Houston offense vs Western Kentucky defenseOffense -8.7Defense -3.3Edge Western Kentucky: its defense is 5.4 points better than Sam Houston's offense.
Western Kentucky offense vs Sam Houston defenseOffense -5.2Defense -1.9Edge Sam Houston: its defense is 3.3 points better than Western Kentucky's offense.
| Stat | Sam Houston | Western Kentucky | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | -0.03 | 0.01 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 37.4% | 36.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 39.8% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.1 | 21.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 30.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.