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San Diego State vs Texas State prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
SDSU 32% win68% TXST
27Projected
vs
34ProjectedNeutral site
San Diego State Aztecs
Record 3–5 · #104 in ratings
Neutral site
Texas State Bobcats
Record 4–3 · #62 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 25 vs 55
- Projected
- TXST favored
- Differential
- 7.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas State by 7.1
- Projected total
- 60.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 37.9%
- Went to overtime
- 2.9%
- San Diego State wins by 21+
- 3.5%
- Texas State wins by 21+
- 19.2%
- Median score
- 26–33
- Model expectation
- 26.5–33.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are San Diego State wins, bars on the left are Texas State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Texas State 34, San Diego State 2052 games
- Texas State 30, San Diego State 2749 games
- Texas State 34, San Diego State 2747 games
- Texas State 27, San Diego State 2445 games
- Texas State 37, San Diego State 2745 games
- Texas State 30, San Diego State 2442 games
Where the edges are
San Diego State offense vs Texas State defenseOffense -1.2Defense -1.9Even: neither side has a real edge.
Texas State offense vs San Diego State defenseOffense +2.6Defense -5.0Edge Texas State: its offense is 7.7 points better than San Diego State's defense.
| Stat | San Diego State | Texas State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.28 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.9% | 50.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 48.6% | 44.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.5 | 37.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 36.1 | 30.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.