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San Diego State vs Toledo prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
SDSU 33% win67% TOL
28Projected
vs
35ProjectedNeutral site
San Diego State Aztecs
Record 3–5 · #104 in ratings
Neutral site
Toledo Rockets
Record 6–2 · #65 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 25 vs 53
- Projected
- TOL favored
- Differential
- 6.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Toledo by 6.9
- Projected total
- 63.4
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.4%
- San Diego State wins by 21+
- 4.1%
- Toledo wins by 21+
- 19.2%
- Median score
- 27–34
- Model expectation
- 28.1–34.9
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are San Diego State wins, bars on the left are Toledo wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Toledo 37, San Diego State 2044 games
- Toledo 37, San Diego State 2443 games
- Toledo 37, San Diego State 2742 games
- Toledo 30, San Diego State 2042 games
- Toledo 30, San Diego State 2340 games
- Toledo 27, San Diego State 2438 games
Where the edges are
San Diego State offense vs Toledo defenseOffense -1.2Defense -3.5Edge San Diego State: its offense is 2.4 points better than Toledo's defense.
Toledo offense vs San Diego State defenseOffense +4.1Defense -5.0Edge Toledo: its offense is 9.1 points better than San Diego State's defense.
| Stat | San Diego State | Toledo | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | -0.02 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.9% | 45.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 48.6% | 33.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.5 | 37.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 36.1 | 25.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.