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San Diego State vs Utah State prediction
Kickoff Sat 8:30 PM CT, at San Diego State
SDSU 65% win35% USU
25Projected18If USU upsets
vs
20Projected27If USU upsetsHome
San Diego State Aztecs
Record 3–5 · #104 in ratings
Away
Utah State Aggies
Record 2–5 · #123 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (53)
Starts at 53, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | SDSU | USU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 43 | 68 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog35%Utah State wins on the road
If Utah State plays at home51% ▲
Utah State: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Washington State 17–16)
San Diego State: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Colorado State 49–56)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Utah State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- SDSU 27, USU 1775 games
- SDSU 20, USU 1773 games
- SDSU 24, USU 1072 games
- SDSU 24, USU 1771 games
- SDSU 20, USU 1068 games
- Power index
- 25 vs 11
- Projected
- SDSU favored
- Differential
- 5.5 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at San Diego State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 8:30 PM CT, at San Diego State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- San Diego State by 5.5
- Projected total
- 44.8
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.1%
- Went to overtime
- 3.9%
- San Diego State wins by 21+
- 14.9%
- Utah State wins by 21+
- 3.8%
- Median score
- 24–20
- Model expectation
- 25–19.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are San Diego State wins, bars on the left are Utah State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
San Diego State offense vs Utah State defenseOffense -1.2Defense +1.1Edge Utah State: its defense is 2.3 points better than San Diego State's offense.
Utah State offense vs San Diego State defenseOffense -9.9Defense -5.0Edge San Diego State: its defense is 4.9 points better than Utah State's offense.
| Stat | San Diego State | Utah State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | -0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.9% | 36.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 48.6% | 40.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.5 | 14.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 36.1 | 23.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
