Loading the matchup…
San Diego State vs Washington State prediction
Kickoff Sat 6:00 PM CT, at San Diego State
SDSU 64% win36% WSU
29Projected
vs
23ProjectedHome
San Diego State Aztecs
Record 3–5 · #104 in ratings
Away
Washington State Cougars
Record 1–7 · #118 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 25 vs 15
- Projected
- SDSU favored
- Differential
- 5.2 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at San Diego State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 6:00 PM CT, at San Diego State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- San Diego State by 5.2
- Projected total
- 52.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.5%
- San Diego State wins by 21+
- 15.3%
- Washington State wins by 21+
- 4.4%
- Median score
- 28–23
- Model expectation
- 28.3–23.1
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are San Diego State wins, bars on the left are Washington State wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- San Diego State 27, Washington State 2466 games
- Washington State 24, San Diego State 2057 games
- San Diego State 20, Washington State 1756 games
- San Diego State 27, Washington State 2056 games
- San Diego State 24, Washington State 2053 games
- San Diego State 27, Washington State 1752 games
Where the edges are
San Diego State offense vs Washington State defenseOffense -1.2Defense -2.2Edge San Diego State: its offense is 1.1 points better than Washington State's defense.
Washington State offense vs San Diego State defenseOffense -6.2Defense -5.0Edge San Diego State: its defense is 1.2 points better than Washington State's offense.
| Stat | San Diego State | Washington State | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.01 | -0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.16 | 0.14 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 36.9% | 34.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 48.6% | 41.2% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.5 | 18.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 36.1 | 27.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.