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San José State vs New Mexico prediction
Kickoff Sat 3:00 PM CT, at San José State
SJSU 18% win83% UNM
15Projected25If SJSU upsets
vs
28Projected17If SJSU upsetsHome
San José State Spartans
Record 4–4 · #112 in ratings
Away
New Mexico Lobos
Record 6–1 · #19 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (55)
Starts at 55, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | SJSU | UNM | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 51 | 56 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Upset alert18%San José State wins at home
At a neutral site13% ▼
San José State: no wins over higher-rated teams in 7 FBS games
New Mexico: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Oklahoma 6–14)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games San José State won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- UNM 27, SJSU 793 games
- UNM 24, SJSU 1092 games
- UNM 20, SJSU 1084 games
- UNM 24, SJSU 1783 games
- UNM 34, SJSU 771 games
- Power index
- 19 vs 87
- Projected
- UNM favored
- Differential
- 13.2 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at San José State, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 3:00 PM CT, at San José State.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- New Mexico by 13.2
- Projected total
- 42.6
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 30.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.0%
- San José State wins by 21+
- 1.1%
- New Mexico wins by 21+
- 29.7%
- Median score
- 14–27
- Model expectation
- 14.6–27.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are San José State wins, bars on the left are New Mexico wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
San José State offense vs New Mexico defenseOffense -6.2Defense +6.6Edge New Mexico: its defense is 12.7 points better than San José State's offense.
New Mexico offense vs San José State defenseOffense +2.2Defense -1.1Edge New Mexico: its offense is 3.3 points better than San José State's defense.
| Stat | San José State | New Mexico | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.09 | 0.16 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | -0.18 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.0% | 41.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8% | 30.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.4 | 37.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.5 | 11.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
