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San José State vs USC prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
SJSU 18% win82% USC
20Projected
vs
33ProjectedNeutral site
San José State Spartans
Record 4–4 · #112 in ratings
Neutral site
USC Trojans
Record 6–2 · #33 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 19 vs 77
- Projected
- USC favored
- Differential
- 13.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- USC by 13.1
- Projected total
- 53.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 30.6%
- Went to overtime
- 2.5%
- San José State wins by 21+
- 1.1%
- USC wins by 21+
- 31.0%
- Median score
- 20–33
- Model expectation
- 19.9–33
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are San José State wins, bars on the left are USC wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- USC 30, San José State 1765 games
- USC 27, San José State 2058 games
- USC 34, San José State 1758 games
- USC 27, San José State 2457 games
- USC 34, San José State 1054 games
- USC 30, San José State 2454 games
Where the edges are
San José State offense vs USC defenseOffense -6.2Defense -0.2Edge USC: its defense is 5.9 points better than San José State's offense.
USC offense vs San José State defenseOffense +6.1Defense -1.1Edge USC: its offense is 7.2 points better than San José State's defense.
| Stat | San José State | USC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.09 | 0.25 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.12 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.0% | 51.0% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8% | 40.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.4 | 32.8 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.5 | 25.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.