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San José State vs UTEP prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
SJSU 72% win28% UTEP
27Projected
vs
19ProjectedNeutral site
San José State Spartans
Record 4–4 · #112 in ratings
Neutral site
UTEP Miners
Record 1–6 · #134 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 19 vs 3
- Projected
- SJSU favored
- Differential
- 8.4 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- San José State by 8.4
- Projected total
- 46.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.8%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- San José State wins by 21+
- 20.2%
- UTEP wins by 21+
- 2.3%
- Median score
- 27–17
- Model expectation
- 26.9–18.5
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are San José State wins, bars on the left are UTEP wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- San José State 20, UTEP 1781 games
- San José State 27, UTEP 1773 games
- San José State 27, UTEP 1071 games
- San José State 24, UTEP 1766 games
- San José State 27, UTEP 2466 games
- San José State 30, UTEP 1765 games
Where the edges are
San José State offense vs UTEP defenseOffense -6.2Defense -7.3Edge San José State: its offense is 1.1 points better than UTEP's defense.
UTEP offense vs San José State defenseOffense -8.4Defense -1.1Edge San José State: its defense is 7.3 points better than UTEP's offense.
| Stat | San José State | UTEP | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.09 | -0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.28 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 38.0% | 33.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8% | 48.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 20.4 | 15.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 22.5 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.