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SMU vs Syracuse prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Syracuse
SMU 58% win42% SYR
30Projected
vs
27ProjectedAway
SMU Mustangs
Record 6–1 · #37 in ratings
Home
Syracuse Orange
Record 3–4 · #75 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 74 vs 46
- Projected
- SMU favored
- Differential
- 2.9 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Syracuse, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Syracuse.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- SMU by 2.9
- Projected total
- 56.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.6%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- SMU wins by 21+
- 13.0%
- Syracuse wins by 21+
- 6.6%
- Median score
- 30–27
- Model expectation
- 29.2–26.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are SMU wins, bars on the left are Syracuse wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- SMU 27, Syracuse 1754 games
- SMU 30, Syracuse 2751 games
- SMU 34, Syracuse 2751 games
- SMU 24, Syracuse 2049 games
- SMU 27, Syracuse 2049 games
- SMU 34, Syracuse 3048 games
Where the edges are
SMU offense vs Syracuse defenseOffense +3.8Defense -1.1Edge SMU: its offense is 4.9 points better than Syracuse's defense.
Syracuse offense vs SMU defenseOffense +0.6Defense +1.6Edge SMU: its defense is 1.0 points better than Syracuse's offense.
| Stat | SMU | Syracuse | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.06 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.3% | 42.2% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.8% | 42.6% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.4 | 31.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1 | 26.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.