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SMU vs Virginia prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
SMU 60% win40% UVA
25Projected
vs
22ProjectedNeutral site
SMU Mustangs
Record 6–1 · #37 in ratings
Neutral site
Virginia Cavaliers
Record 4–4 · #58 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 74 vs 58
- Projected
- SMU favored
- Differential
- 3.8 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- SMU by 3.8
- Projected total
- 47.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 43.0%
- Went to overtime
- 4.6%
- SMU wins by 21+
- 13.2%
- Virginia wins by 21+
- 4.9%
- Median score
- 24–21
- Model expectation
- 25.1–21
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are SMU wins, bars on the left are Virginia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- SMU 24, Virginia 1781 games
- Virginia 24, SMU 2080 games
- SMU 20, Virginia 1773 games
- SMU 27, Virginia 1770 games
- SMU 24, Virginia 2067 games
- SMU 27, Virginia 2062 games
Where the edges are
SMU offense vs Virginia defenseOffense +3.8Defense +4.5Even: neither side has a real edge.
Virginia offense vs SMU defenseOffense -3.1Defense +1.6Edge SMU: its defense is 4.8 points better than Virginia's offense.
| Stat | SMU | Virginia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.24 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.07 | 0.09 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 49.3% | 44.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 37.8% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 36.4 | 28.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 21.1 | 19.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.