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South Alabama vs Southern Miss prediction
Kickoff Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Southern Miss
USA 60% win40% USM
37Projected29If USM upsets
vs
33Projected41If USM upsetsAway
South Alabama Jaguars
Record 4–3 · #88 in ratings
Home
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Record 2–5 · #127 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (49)
Starts at 49, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | USA | USM | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 54 | 58 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up40%Southern Miss wins at home
At a neutral site31% ▼
Southern Miss: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Louisiana 35–31)
South Alabama: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (Marshall 13–20, Tulane 24–28)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Southern Miss won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- USM 37, USA 3444 games
- USA 37, USM 3043 games
- USA 44, USM 3041 games
- USA 34, USM 3039 games
- USA 41, USM 3738 games
- Power index
- 36 vs 8
- Projected
- USA favored
- Differential
- 4.1 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Southern Miss, luck set to normal. The real game is Fri 11:00 PM CT, at Southern Miss.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- South Alabama by 4.1
- Projected total
- 70.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 39.2%
- Went to overtime
- 2.8%
- South Alabama wins by 21+
- 15.5%
- Southern Miss wins by 21+
- 6.2%
- Median score
- 37–33
- Model expectation
- 37–32.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are South Alabama wins, bars on the left are Southern Miss wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
South Alabama offense vs Southern Miss defenseOffense +4.7Defense -8.0Edge South Alabama: its offense is 12.7 points better than Southern Miss's defense.
Southern Miss offense vs South Alabama defenseOffense -2.9Defense -8.3Edge Southern Miss: its offense is 5.4 points better than South Alabama's defense.
| Stat | South Alabama | Southern Miss | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.19 | 0.02 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.16 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.2% | 41.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 51.0% | 42.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.1 | 25.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.4 | 32.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
