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South Alabama vs Tulane prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
USA 51% win49% TULN
28.7Projected
vs
28.6ProjectedNeutral site
South Alabama Jaguars
Record 4–3 · #88 in ratings
Neutral site
Tulane Green Wave
Record 3–4 · #89 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 36 vs 36
- Projected
- Pick'em
- Differential
- 0.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Pick'em
- Projected total
- 57.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.0%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- South Alabama wins by 21+
- 9.3%
- Tulane wins by 21+
- 9.6%
- Median score
- 28–28
- Model expectation
- 28.3–28.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are South Alabama wins, bars on the left are Tulane wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Tulane 30, South Alabama 2754 games
- South Alabama 31, Tulane 2749 games
- South Alabama 27, Tulane 2048 games
- South Alabama 27, Tulane 2345 games
- South Alabama 30, Tulane 2743 games
- Tulane 27, South Alabama 2043 games
Where the edges are
South Alabama offense vs Tulane defenseOffense +4.7Defense +2.2Edge South Alabama: its offense is 2.5 points better than Tulane's defense.
Tulane offense vs South Alabama defenseOffense -5.9Defense -8.3Edge Tulane: its offense is 2.4 points better than South Alabama's defense.
| Stat | South Alabama | Tulane | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.19 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.24 | 0.10 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.2% | 32.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 51.0% | 42.7% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 35.1 | 20.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.4 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.