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South Florida vs Temple prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
USF 72% win28% TEM
28Projected
vs
20ProjectedNeutral site
South Florida Bulls
Record 5–2 · #56 in ratings
Neutral site
Temple Owls
Record 2–5 · #102 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 60 vs 26
- Projected
- USF favored
- Differential
- 8.1 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- South Florida by 8.1
- Projected total
- 47.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.5%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- South Florida wins by 21+
- 18.6%
- Temple wins by 21+
- 2.5%
- Median score
- 27–19
- Model expectation
- 27.3–19.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are South Florida wins, bars on the left are Temple wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- South Florida 24, Temple 2079 games
- South Florida 27, Temple 1778 games
- South Florida 24, Temple 1770 games
- South Florida 30, Temple 1767 games
- South Florida 27, Temple 1066 games
- South Florida 34, Temple 1763 games
Where the edges are
South Florida offense vs Temple defenseOffense -2.2Defense -3.7Edge South Florida: its offense is 1.6 points better than Temple's defense.
Temple offense vs South Florida defenseOffense -2.3Defense +4.2Edge South Florida: its defense is 6.5 points better than Temple's offense.
| Stat | South Florida | Temple | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.13 | 0.21 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.21 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.0% | 43.4% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 46.0% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.6 | 25.7 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.1 | 28.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.