Loading the matchup…
South Florida vs UAB prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at South Florida
USF 79% win21% UAB
26Projected
vs
15ProjectedHome
South Florida Bulls
Record 5–2 · #56 in ratings
Away
UAB Blazers
Record 4–3 · #103 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 60 vs 26
- Projected
- USF favored
- Differential
- 11.1 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at South Florida, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at South Florida.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- South Florida by 11.1
- Projected total
- 41.5
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 33.9%
- Went to overtime
- 3.1%
- South Florida wins by 21+
- 24.8%
- UAB wins by 21+
- 1.5%
- Median score
- 26–14
- Model expectation
- 26.2–15
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are South Florida wins, bars on the left are UAB wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- South Florida 24, UAB 1090 games
- South Florida 27, UAB 1082 games
- South Florida 27, UAB 1478 games
- South Florida 17, UAB 1078 games
- South Florida 20, UAB 1774 games
- South Florida 27, UAB 1773 games
Where the edges are
South Florida offense vs UAB defenseOffense -2.2Defense -1.1Edge UAB: its defense is 1.1 points better than South Florida's offense.
UAB offense vs South Florida defenseOffense -5.1Defense +4.2Edge South Florida: its defense is 9.3 points better than UAB's offense.
| Stat | South Florida | UAB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.13 | 0.04 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.01 | 0.02 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 47.0% | 41.5% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.3% | 43.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 26.6 | 23.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 15.1 | 24.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.