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Southern Miss vs Troy prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
USM 46% win54% TROY
27Projected
vs
29ProjectedNeutral site
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Record 2–5 · #127 in ratings
Neutral site
Troy Trojans
Record 3–4 · #124 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 8 vs 10
- Projected
- TROY favored
- Differential
- 1.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Troy by 1.7
- Projected total
- 56.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.2%
- Went to overtime
- 3.6%
- Southern Miss wins by 21+
- 7.8%
- Troy wins by 21+
- 11.7%
- Median score
- 27–28
- Model expectation
- 26.9–28.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Southern Miss wins, bars on the left are Troy wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Southern Miss 27, Troy 2050 games
- Troy 27, Southern Miss 2048 games
- Southern Miss 34, Troy 2748 games
- Southern Miss 31, Troy 2745 games
- Troy 27, Southern Miss 1744 games
- Troy 30, Southern Miss 2441 games
Where the edges are
Southern Miss offense vs Troy defenseOffense -2.9Defense -4.0Edge Southern Miss: its offense is 1.1 points better than Troy's defense.
Troy offense vs Southern Miss defenseOffense -5.0Defense -8.0Edge Troy: its offense is 2.9 points better than Southern Miss's defense.
| Stat | Southern Miss | Troy | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.02 | 0.08 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.06 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.6% | 40.1% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 40.3% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.7 | 22.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.4 | 24.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.