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Southern Miss vs UConn prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
USM 22% win78% CONN
25Projected
vs
36ProjectedNeutral site
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Record 2–5 · #127 in ratings
Neutral site
UConn Huskies
Record 4–3 · #61 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 8 vs 56
- Projected
- CONN favored
- Differential
- 11.7 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- UConn by 11.7
- Projected total
- 61.1
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 31.3%
- Went to overtime
- 2.1%
- Southern Miss wins by 21+
- 2.2%
- UConn wins by 21+
- 28.9%
- Median score
- 24–37
- Model expectation
- 24.5–36.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Southern Miss wins, bars on the left are UConn wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- UConn 37, Southern Miss 2050 games
- UConn 34, Southern Miss 2745 games
- UConn 37, Southern Miss 2745 games
- UConn 37, Southern Miss 2444 games
- UConn 37, Southern Miss 3143 games
- UConn 34, Southern Miss 2442 games
Where the edges are
Southern Miss offense vs UConn defenseOffense -2.9Defense -1.6Edge UConn: its defense is 1.3 points better than Southern Miss's offense.
UConn offense vs Southern Miss defenseOffense +2.4Defense -8.0Edge UConn: its offense is 10.4 points better than Southern Miss's defense.
| Stat | Southern Miss | UConn | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.02 | 0.22 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.08 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.6% | 43.9% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 41.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.7 | 35.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.4 | 23.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.