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Southern Miss vs UL Monroe prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at UL Monroe
USM 56% win44% ULM
30Projected
vs
28ProjectedAway
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
Record 2–5 · #127 in ratings
Home
UL Monroe Warhawks
Record 1–6 · #136 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 8 vs 1
- Projected
- USM favored
- Differential
- 2.5 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at UL Monroe, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at UL Monroe.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Southern Miss by 2.5
- Projected total
- 58.2
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 41.3%
- Went to overtime
- 3.3%
- Southern Miss wins by 21+
- 12.4%
- UL Monroe wins by 21+
- 7.1%
- Median score
- 30–27
- Model expectation
- 30–27.6
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Southern Miss wins, bars on the left are UL Monroe wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Southern Miss 34, UL Monroe 2746 games
- UL Monroe 34, Southern Miss 2744 games
- Southern Miss 34, UL Monroe 2044 games
- Southern Miss 27, UL Monroe 2344 games
- UL Monroe 31, Southern Miss 2743 games
- Southern Miss 30, UL Monroe 2741 games
Where the edges are
Southern Miss offense vs UL Monroe defenseOffense -2.9Defense -8.6Edge Southern Miss: its offense is 5.7 points better than UL Monroe's defense.
UL Monroe offense vs Southern Miss defenseOffense -7.7Defense -8.0Even: neither side has a real edge.
| Stat | Southern Miss | UL Monroe | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.02 | -0.05 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.18 | 0.24 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.6% | 40.6% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0% | 46.1% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 25.7 | 20.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 32.4 | 37.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.