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Syracuse vs SMU prediction
Kickoff Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Syracuse
SYR 42% win58% SMU
26Projected34If SYR upsets
vs
30Projected22If SYR upsetsHome
Syracuse Orange
Record 3–4 · #75 in ratings
Away
SMU Mustangs
Record 6–1 · #37 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (55)
Starts at 55, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | SYR | SMU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 93 | 66 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Toss-up42%Syracuse wins at home
At a neutral site35% ▼
Syracuse: 2 wins over higher-rated teams (North Carolina 31–30, UConn 42–41)
SMU: no losses to lower-rated teams in 6 FBS games
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Syracuse won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- SMU 24, SYR 2054 games
- SMU 27, SYR 2054 games
- SMU 30, SYR 2747 games
- SMU 34, SYR 2046 games
- SMU 27, SYR 2345 games
- Power index
- 46 vs 74
- Projected
- SMU favored
- Differential
- 3.4 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at Syracuse, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 11:00 AM CT, at Syracuse.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- SMU by 3.4
- Projected total
- 56.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 40.7%
- Went to overtime
- 3.8%
- Syracuse wins by 21+
- 6.3%
- SMU wins by 21+
- 13.4%
- Median score
- 26–30
- Model expectation
- 26.2–29.2
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Syracuse wins, bars on the left are SMU wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
Syracuse offense vs SMU defenseOffense +0.6Defense +1.6Edge SMU: its defense is 1.0 points better than Syracuse's offense.
SMU offense vs Syracuse defenseOffense +3.8Defense -1.1Edge SMU: its offense is 4.9 points better than Syracuse's defense.
| Stat | Syracuse | SMU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.24 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.07 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.2% | 49.3% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6% | 37.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.6 | 36.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 21.1 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.
