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Syracuse vs Virginia prediction
Hypothetical matchup, 2026 season
SYR 45% win55% UVA
22Projected
vs
24ProjectedNeutral site
Syracuse Orange
Record 3–4 · #75 in ratings
Neutral site
Virginia Cavaliers
Record 4–4 · #58 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (50)
Turnover and penalty data arrives with the next daily update, so this starts at normal.
- Power index
- 46 vs 58
- Projected
- UVA favored
- Differential
- 1.9 pts
Team A conference
NeutralSelect team
Team B conference
NeutralSelect team
10,000 simulated games at a neutral site, luck set to normal. These teams aren't scheduled to play this season.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Virginia by 1.9
- Projected total
- 46.3
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 44.7%
- Went to overtime
- 4.5%
- Syracuse wins by 21+
- 6.2%
- Virginia wins by 21+
- 10.2%
- Median score
- 21–24
- Model expectation
- 21.9–23.7
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are Syracuse wins, bars on the left are Virginia wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Most common scores
- Virginia 24, Syracuse 2082 games
- Virginia 24, Syracuse 1778 games
- Virginia 27, Syracuse 1774 games
- Syracuse 20, Virginia 1767 games
- Syracuse 24, Virginia 2066 games
- Virginia 17, Syracuse 1362 games
Where the edges are
Syracuse offense vs Virginia defenseOffense +0.6Defense +4.5Edge Virginia: its defense is 3.9 points better than Syracuse's offense.
Virginia offense vs Syracuse defenseOffense -3.1Defense -1.1Edge Syracuse: its defense is 2.0 points better than Virginia's offense.
| Stat | Syracuse | Virginia | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.06 | 0.18 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | 0.10 | 0.09 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 42.2% | 44.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6% | 39.8% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 31.6 | 28.3 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 19.6 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,508 completed games and update every morning.