Loading the matchup…
TCU vs Kansas prediction
Kickoff Sat 2:30 PM CT, at TCU
TCU 69% win31% KU
22Projected14If KU upsets
vs
16Projected23If KU upsetsHome
TCU Horned Frogs
Record 3–4 · #48 in ratings
Away
Kansas Jayhawks
Record 3–4 · #71 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (55)
Starts at 55, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | TCU | KU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.0 | 2.6 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 67 | 61 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog31%Kansas wins on the road
If Kansas plays at home48% ▲
Kansas: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Baylor 25–24)
TCU: 2 losses to lower-rated teams (West Virginia 20–24, North Carolina 10–15)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games Kansas won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TCU 17, KU 1092 games
- TCU 20, KU 1791 games
- TCU 17, KU 1488 games
- TCU 24, KU 1084 games
- TCU 24, KU 1780 games
- Power index
- 66 vs 49
- Projected
- TCU favored
- Differential
- 6.6 pts
Team A conference
HomeSelect team
Team B conference
AwaySelect team
10,000 simulated games at TCU, luck set to normal. The real game is Sat 2:30 PM CT, at TCU.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- TCU by 6.6
- Projected total
- 37.9
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 42.4%
- Went to overtime
- 4.9%
- TCU wins by 21+
- 15.5%
- Kansas wins by 21+
- 2.6%
- Median score
- 21–14
- Model expectation
- 21.9–15.4
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are TCU wins, bars on the left are Kansas wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
TCU offense vs Kansas defenseOffense -5.2Defense +0.1Edge Kansas: its defense is 5.3 points better than TCU's offense.
Kansas offense vs TCU defenseOffense +0.0Defense +8.9Edge TCU: its defense is 8.8 points better than Kansas's offense.
| Stat | TCU | Kansas | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | 0.12 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | 0.05 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.8% | 41.7% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.7% | 38.4% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 31.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 13.9 | 24.0 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.