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TCU vs Texas Tech prediction
Kickoff Thu 7:00 PM CT, at Texas Tech
TCU 29% win71% TTU
17Projected25If TCU upsets
vs
24Projected16If TCU upsetsAway
TCU Horned Frogs
Record 3–4 · #48 in ratings
Home
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Record 6–1 · #20 in ratings
Home / away venueNeutral site
Normal (60)
Starts at 60, set by both teams' turnovers and penalties this season. More luck means more upsets.
What goes into luck
| Per game, this season | TCU | TTU | FBS avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Turnovers in their games (lost + forced) | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| Penalty yards | 67 | 54 | 57 |
Teams whose games have more turnovers and penalties than average play less predictable games, so their matchup starts with more luck. Luck never changes who is favored, only how often the underdog pulls it off. Even at "almost none", single drives still go either way.
Upset watch
Live underdog29%TCU wins on the road
If TCU plays at home44% ▲
TCU: 1 win over a higher-rated team (Baylor 17–6)
Texas Tech: 1 loss to a lower-rated team (Cincinnati 24–37)
This season, compared with current ratings.
Upset score (under each projected score): the average final in the simulated games TCU won. Injuries aren't included; there's no injury data source.
Most common scores
Out of 10,000 simulated games
- TTU 27, TCU 1088 games
- TTU 17, TCU 1083 games
- TTU 20, TCU 1083 games
- TTU 20, TCU 1782 games
- TTU 24, TCU 1777 games
- Power index
- 66 vs 86
- Projected
- TTU favored
- Differential
- 7.9 pts
Team A conference
AwaySelect team
Team B conference
HomeSelect team
10,000 simulated games at Texas Tech, luck set to normal. The real game is Thu 7:00 PM CT, at Texas Tech.
For entertainment purposes only. These are simulated outcomes, not predictions to bet on.
- Projected spread
- Texas Tech by 7.9
- Projected total
- 41.0
- Decided by 8 or fewer
- 38.8%
- Went to overtime
- 4.1%
- TCU wins by 21+
- 2.6%
- Texas Tech wins by 21+
- 19.0%
- Median score
- 16–24
- Model expectation
- 16.3–24.3
Every final margin
Each bar is a 3-point range. Bars on the right are TCU wins, bars on the left are Texas Tech wins. Hover a bar for its share of games.
Where the edges are
TCU offense vs Texas Tech defenseOffense -5.2Defense +2.8Edge Texas Tech: its defense is 8.0 points better than TCU's offense.
Texas Tech offense vs TCU defenseOffense +5.9Defense +8.9Edge TCU: its defense is 3.0 points better than Texas Tech's offense.
| Stat | TCU | Texas Tech | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Expected points per play, offense | 0.08 | 0.15 | Higher is better |
| Expected points per play allowed | -0.06 | -0.04 | Lower is better |
| Offensive success rate | 41.8% | 46.8% | Higher is better |
| Success rate allowed | 34.7% | 37.9% | Lower is better |
| Points per game | 23.4 | 35.9 | Raw, not adjusted |
| Points allowed per game | 13.9 | 20.4 | Raw, not adjusted |
How the simulation works
Every team gets an offense and defense rating from this season's scores, adjusted for who they played: scoring 40 against a top defense counts for more than 40 against a weak one. Blowouts count as at most a 35-point win.
Each simulated game gives both teams about 10 possessions. Every possession ends in a touchdown, a field goal or nothing, with odds set by how the offense and defense match up, plus a little game-day randomness. Ties go to overtime.
Running it 10,000 times and counting the wins gives the win probability. Ratings use 2,524 completed games and update every morning.